Biologic advantage: European pharma sales set to surpass US rivals by 2028, says GlobalData

New Delhi: The global pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a profound transformation that will shape its future. By 2028, European pharmaceutical companies are poised to surpass their US counterparts in terms of sales.

This transformative shift in global market dynamics is fueled by the rapid growth of biologic sales, which is expected to be a key driver in expanding the overall revenue of the industry, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

The changing landscape highlights a remarkable transition in the industry’s power dynamics, with four out of the top five companies by total sales expected to hail from Europe.

Kevin Marcaida, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Johnson & Johnson, which currently holds the second position in forecast total sales for 2023, is expected to face market share losses to European competitors. Companies such as Roche, Sanofi, and Merck are poised to outperform in terms of sales, underscoring the steady ascent of European pharmaceutical companies.”

Among these frontrunners, Roche is forecast to lead the pack in total sales by 2028, fueled by the success of its innovative drugs, Tecentiq for lung cancers and Ocrevus for multiple sclerosis, which are expected to generate impressive sales of $7.7 billion and $9.2 billion, respectively, in 2028.

GlobalData forecasts European companies to demonstrate exceptional growth rates, with the top six fastest-growing companies by total sales all hailing from Europe. Notably, Novo Nordisk is predicted to experience a significant growth rate of 62% from 2023 to 2028.

Marcaida notes: “This exceptional growth can be attributed to the success of Semaglutide portfolio, including drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus, estimated to generate total sales of $154.1 billion between 2023 and 2028.”

In addition, the growth of biologic sales is expected to play a pivotal role in driving the expansion of total sales. Forecasts indicate that biologic sales will experience a remarkable 39% growth rate, surpassing the anticipated 24% growth rate of total sales from 2023 to 2028.

European pharmaceutical companies are well-positioned to capitalize on their biologics portfolios, outperforming their US counterparts in terms of sales. Roche currently holds the leading position in biologic sales, with a forecasted revenue of $43.7 billion by the end of 2023. However, as we look towards the future, Roche may face potential competition from Merck while Novo Nordisk and Sanofi steadily narrow the sales performance gap.

Marcaida concludes: “Supportive European regulatory measures that prioritize patient access to innovative treatments are believed to be driving the surge in biologics sales. The utilization of Health Technology Assessments in European countries provides an objective evaluation of the clinical effectiveness and value of pharmaceutical products, including biologics.

“These assessments play a crucial role in reimbursement and market access decisions, ensuring fair evaluation of biologics and likely incentivizing European companies to develop and commercialize these products.”