US respiratory test market faces volatility ahead of flu season: GlobalData

New Delhi: The US respiratory test market is navigating a period of volatility as flu season approaches, influenced by shifting demand and evolving testing preferences, according to GlobalData. This transition to more complex and higher-priced multi-target assays could lead to significant variations in sales volumes and revenue, highlighting the market’s ongoing unpredictability.

GlobalData’s Respiratory Disease Tests Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) Tracker estimated revenues of $1.77 billion in December 2021. However, peak revenue for the 2023 flu season, recorded in January 2024, reached $535 million. The demand for COVID-19 tests and related products has waned since 2021, leading to a decreased focus on these tests. GlobalData forecasts peak monthly sales for respiratory tests in the US to range between 8.8 and 16.7 million tests, depending on factors such as outbreaks and testing protocols.

Selena Yu, Senior Medical Analyst at GlobalData, notes, “Based on sample data collected in May 2024, if trough-to-peak sale trends follow 2022, an estimated 8.8 to 10.5 million respiratory tests will be sold in the US at the peak of flu season (excluding over-the-counter tests). However, if sales trends follow 2023, it will be an estimated 14.1 to 16.7 million tests (excluding over-the-counter tests). This analysis is based on the growth between the lowest month of sales, typically spring and summer, and the highest month of sales, during flu season (November to February).”

The market has seen a notable shift from single-target (single plex) tests to mid-target (mid plex) and broad-target (broad plex) assays over the past three years. This shift could impact overall sales volume, as mid and broad plex tests generally have higher average selling prices (ASPs). As of June 2024, ASPs are $17.31 for single plex, $22.07 for low plex, $54.58 for mid plex, and $109.99 for broad plex tests.

Yu adds, “It is difficult to estimate peak monthly revenue for the 2024 flu season since there is a shift favoring mid and broad-plex testing compared to single plex tests. If we see a similar trough-to-peak trend 2022, the lowest revenue for the peak sales month will be $104.9 million and a maximum of $124.5 million. However, if the trend is like 2023, we can see a minimum of $618.0 million and a maximum of $733.8 million. This truly demonstrates the volatility of the respiratory tests market.”